Fort Bragg Unified School District was presented with a state and local budget picture last week that contained a few facts, but a whole lot more “ifs,” “ands,” “maybes” and “buts.”
Uncertainty isn”t new. Every year, local schools have to wait for the state budget picture to clear before making final hiring and work plans.
But ambiguity is greatly multiplied this year over any past year. On a long list of new issues obscuring the budget are an economic collapse sucking tax revenues faster than accountants can revise their spreadsheets, a state budget jerry-rigged to deliver promised funds only if voters pass a series of propositions in May and a one-time federal stimulus program.
The latest tenuous projection is for a 2009-2010 $960,000 deficit in what the state was supposed to send to FBUSD. At last week”s board meeting, new cuts totaling $705,214 were detailed — all of which were put in the “if” category. Maybe they could go away, but they could get worse, too, trustees heard.
Kathe Charters, the district”s financial officer, gave a PowerPoint presentation that also showed the district is already dealing with a decline in unrestricted funds from $12 million to $11.6 million for 2008-2009.
Charters showed the district can likely meet its financial obligations for the next three years, but much work remains to be done on issues such as employee pay and protecting important and locally unique programs.
Charters and Superintendent Don Armstrong emphasized that past practices of being very conservative despite boom times had put the district in better shape than many other school systems.
But, everything is truly up in the air like never before.
On the upside of the many still undefined issues, the district won”t project gains from the Obama Administration”s federal stimulus package until the money is on the way.
The biggest losing “if” is the state budget, which depends on voters passing six propositions on the state ballot May 19.
If those propositions fail, the state will have to go back to the drawing board with its 18-month budget, passed with great controversy and drama last fall. That budget is good through June 2010 only “if” the propositions pass.
Charters has been watching the news, and none of the propositions are ahead in the polls, with most near even, she told the board.
Superintendent Armstrong said if the propositions fail, the state would be seeking more cuts. But how much of that would come from schools is unknown, he said.
Another gigantic floating “if” is the economic decline. If the state”s economy continues to slump, revenues will plummet beyond all expectations in the budget. Armstrong said that means more cuts are possible even if the propositions all pass and the economy continues to crash.
The total FBUSD budget shows $17 million in revenue and $18 million in expenses.
But the district has $1 million in leftover money from 2007-2008, a situation that was characterized as a one-time gap filler.
In February, the state announced the most confusing “if” of all. The state told local districts there would be a 15.4 percent cut in moneys for the current year.
“That came two-thirds of the way through the year,” said Charters.
The state also provided a new and confusing “but” that can help bridge this new gap.
School districts are now allowed more flexibility in spending. That means money that was earmarked for school safety might now be used for something like teacher salaries, Charters explained. But with the school year mostly used up, the district decided it can”t shift gears to take advantage of this new loophole.
The benefit of this will come next year, when the district plans to incorporate the change into its budgeting to account for an expected 20 percent state cut.
A key “and” to the local budget situation is that FBUSD enrollment is down. Because revenue is based on enrollment, called average daily attendance, or ADA, fewer students also mean cuts to local revenue.
A total of four teacher positions are eliminated in the current budget, a full-time English teacher position at the high school, a full-time math teacher position (split between the middle and high schools), a full-time academic coach position at the middle school, and a kindergarten teacher position.
These positions are being cut because of declining enrollment at this point.
Five teachers have announced retirements. As of now, all those will be filled, but that”s another maybe.
Last month, 14.2 teacher positions got layoff notices. Although the proposed teacher cuts now stand at just four, the 14.2 layoffs will be left in place.
That”s because of another big “if” that prevents school districts from doing final planning each year — the state”s annual “May revise” budget, which updates revenues depending on conditions at the time. This year it will be a “June revise” with figuring done on both the changes due to the May 19 vote and other revisions made due to savings and tax revenue losses.
“The greatest stumbling blocks to rescinding layoff notices is the June revise,” Armstrong said. “If the state budget goes below the equator, the situation could go precipitously downhill from there.”
Armstrong said although the administration would love to simply tell the teachers who got notices they will be back in the fall, “Everything is tenuous; we don”t know what is going to happen.”
Armstrong, steering the budget through his first full year as superintendent, provided a three-year budget picture to the board.
He said “a sea change” was needed in how the district plans and spends. He indicated that would involve changing the past practice of each school having its own budget process. Instead, that would be consolidated for efficiency.
Armstrong didn”t elaborate on how that might save money, indicating it would be part of a new strategy still being worked out.
The district can layoff classified personnel, such as administrators, janitors and office personnel with 45 days notice, so that is some bad news that could come later.
Teachers require six months” notice, hence the layoff notices that were sent last month, and which the district plans to continue in May, pending the state”s June revise budget.
